Deloitte: early holiday shoppers still leave room for BFCM

Holiday campaigns need an early opening act without abandoning the main event. In Deloitte’s 2026 US holiday survey, 22% of respondents say they intend to start shopping sooner than last year. Thanksgiving week still matters.

The October 15 release puts average planned household holiday spending at $1,654, up 4% from last year. These are consumer intentions, not a measurement of completed orders or a promise that an individual Shopify store will grow.

Two moments to plan for

Deloitte’s full report says online spending is expected to account for 55% of retail budgets. Its findings make a useful case for having gift discovery and clear product information ready before Black Friday, while keeping capacity and campaign plans for the Thanksgiving period.

Our practical recommendation is to separate those jobs. An October gift guide can help visitors choose by recipient, price or delivery requirements. A later promotion can have its own offer, inventory allocation and email sequence. Launching discovery content early does not require putting the whole catalogue on sale early.

Measure your customers, not the national average

Before moving budget, compare your own recent conversion rate, contribution margin and repeat-customer orders with the equivalent trading period. Check whether an early offer brings additional demand or simply pulls purchases forward. Keep a record of the offer dates and audience so the result is interpretable.

The survey also highlights a distinction for AI shopping: 39% of respondents describe generative AI as their primary tool for at least one holiday shopping task, but only 16% would allow it to complete a purchase. For merchants, our recommendation is to prioritise accurate product descriptions, availability and delivery information alongside a reliable checkout. Interest in AI-assisted discovery should not be treated as consent to autonomous buying.

Use the research as a planning input, then let store-level evidence determine how aggressively to spend or discount.